House on the Sand

Jeremy Leggett, a former oil man, wrote an article in ‘The Independent’ (20/1/06) entitled, ‘What they don’t want you to know about the coming oil crisis.’ He wrote:
‘A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of an acute, civilisation-changing energy crisis. … We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use.’

The world consumes more than 80 million barrels of oil a day, 29 billion barrels a year. This figure is rising fast, as it has done for decades. The US government expects that global demand will grow to around 120 million barrels a day, 43 billion barrels a year, by 2025. However there is no way that the oil industry can produce this amount of oil. Leggett says, ‘The most basic of the foundations of our assumptions of future economic well being is rotten. Our society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in history, in terms of its scale and implications.’

The modern industrial world has been built on the supply of energy keeping the electricity supply to our homes and work places running and fuelling our transport system which ensures that goods and people can move from place to place around the world. Without the energy sources – coal, oil, gas and nuclear power – the whole system crumbles.

In America that possibility is beginning to be considered by those who see the phenomenon known as ‘Peak Oil’ as the next big threat to the western way of life. Peak Oil is the point at which oil production reaches a plateau before it declines while demand for oil consumption continues to rise. Once worldwide demand for oil outpaces worldwide production (of oil by a significant margin the price of oil will sky-rocket, oil-dependent economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.

Matthew Savinar has written an article on this subject on the internet site [http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net]. He writes, ‘Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global ‘Peak Oil’.’

When will this happen? According to Savinar, ‘Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the cheap-oil bonanza, while many estimates coming out of the oil industry indicate ‘a seemingly unbridgeable supply-demand gap opening up after 2007,’ which will lead to major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts beginning around 2008-2012.’ Richard Heinberg, in his article ‘Smoking Gun: The CIA’s Interest in Peak Oil’ says ‘A growing consensus of petroleum geologists places this event in the mid-range period of 2006 to 2015.’

Savinar dismisses alternatives to oil as sources of power for the current world system as fantasy. Green alternatives like solar, wind and wave power produce only a tiny fraction of the power now available through oil. Hydrogen as an alternative to oil does not work either due to the huge costs of producing it and the vast problems of storing it. He says there is no time to develop the huge infrastructure needed to switch from an oil based industrial system to an alternative one. Nor is there the political will or the financial capability.

Savinar sees an inevitable collapse of the US economy coming which will drag down the rest of the world. ‘As the driver of the world’s economy, the demise of the US will take down other industrialized countries. The financial dislocations wrought by the coming oil shocks could set the stage for a series of destabilizing resource wars and ‘currency insurgencies’, in much the same way Germany’s financial meltdown during the Weimar Republic of the 1920s set the stage for the rise of Third Reich in the 1930s and World War II in the 1940s.’

Added to all this is the fact that the present suppliers of most of the world’s oil are anything but reliable. 70% of global proven reserves of oil are to be found in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has the world’s largest reserves with 264.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves (25% of the world total). Oil from this area is the easiest to extract and export. Recent finds of oil in the Caspian Sea area and in Central Asia are not as great as was originally hoped and these areas are landlocked so getting the oil out involves building pipelines through such unstable regions as Afghanistan to the south or the Caucasus region to the west. The vulnerability of pipelines to terrorism has been shown by the frequent attacks mounted by insurgents in Iraq.

A disruption anywhere could cause market panic and spiralling prices. Texas oil analyst Matt Simmons has written a book ‘Twilight in the Desert’ which warns that the skyrocketing price of oil could plunge the world into war. One spark which could ignite this fire is Iran’s nuclear programme which is causing worry about possible disruptions of the supply of oil from the Middle East. In January 2006 Iran threatened to cut oil supplies if Europe continued to meddle in what it sees as its right to develop a nuclear programme. It has also threatened to block shipping through the Straits of Hormuz at the entrance of the Persian Gulf if its nuclear facilities are attacked. Every day, 15 million barrels of oil pass in tankers through these narrow Straits.

Production of oil is in decline in more than 50 oil-producing nations, including the USA and Britain. Discoveries of large oil fields are decreasing year by year, while the demand for oil is constantly increasing. In particular China and India are already having a major impact on both oil resources and the environment on account of their huge populations and growing numbers of people prospering as a result of economic development. There have been large finds of oil in Russia with deep wells sunk in Siberia. However Russia could well prove an unreliable source of supply.

January 2006 began with a crisis caused by Russia demanding a huge increase in charges to Ukraine for its gas supply and threatening to cut supplies if the price was not paid. Many saw this as Russia punishing Ukraine for its pro Western policies. But the threat to turn off the gas supplies in the middle of winter did not just affect Ukraine. For a few days countries across Europe watched nervously as the crisis unfolded.

The deputy chairman of Gazprom, the giant Russian company that controls the flow of Russian gas to the west came to London to reassure Britain that there would be no risk of disruption to British gas supplies. The very next day, temperatures in Moscow broke a 50-year record, plunging to minus 30C. Gas normally exported was diverted to the home front. Supplies to the West fell. Nervousness on this subject was increased by news reports that Gazprom is seeking to buy a controlling share in British Gas.

As huge price rises for gas supply are announced, the prospect of the source of this supply being in the hands of a power which once confronted the West during the Cold War is hardly reassuring. After all Russian President Putin once wrote a thesis saying that Russia could use its energy resources to regain its global power. Russia supplies a quarter of all the gas used in Europe and 90% of it flows through Ukraine. This supply is scheduled to increase when the giant pipeline now being built under the North Sea from Russia to Germany is completed. Britain will be at the end of the line for this gas which will become vital as our North Sea oil and gas decline.

A crisis caused by oil resources being cut off or a huge surge in the price of oil and gas could plunge the world into chaos. The Bible prophesies such a time coming at the end of this age and compares it to the birth pangs of a pregnant woman. In 1 Thessalonians 5.1-3 Paul writes: ‘But concerning the times and the seasons, brethren, you have no need that I should write to you. For you yourselves know perfectly that the day of the Lord so comes as a thief in the night. For when they say, ‘Peace and safety!’ then sudden destruction comes upon them, as labour pains upon a pregnant woman’.

When a woman goes into labour a process begins which will lead to the birth of the child. She knows the signs of the impending birth are taking place, but she does not yet see the child and she does not know how long the process will go on for. Today the signs of the second coming of Jesus Christ are taking place – not just some of them but all of them. We do not know how long it will be before the crisis we are describing in this article explodes across the earth, but there is no doubt that it will. When it does the world will enter a period of time described in the Bible as the great tribulation. Jesus describes this period in Matthew 24.21-22: ‘For then there will be great tribulation such as has not been since the beginning of the world until this time, no, nor ever shall be. And unless those days were shortened no flesh would be saved; but for the elect’s sake those days will be shortened.’

Anyone can see that our society is built on shaky foundations. Modern technological society lines up with the well known words of Jesus:

‘Whoever hears these sayings of mine and does them, I will liken him to a wise man who built his house upon the rock; and the wind descended, the floods came, and the winds blew and beat on that house; and it did not fall, for it was founded on the rock. But everyone who hears these sayings of mine and does not do them, will be like a foolish man who built his house on the sand; and the rain descended and the floods came and the winds blew and beat on that house; and it fell. And great was its fall.’ Jesus speaking in Matthew 7.24-27.

Sooner or later the storm will come and this house will crash. What will happen to you and me then? The world situation today is pushing humanity towards an unprecedented crisis in human history which will affect all nations of the earth and bring the possibility of the end of all life on earth if God did not step in through the return of Jesus ‘shortening’ those days and bringing the time of human mis-management of the planet to an end.

Despite all this there is a glorious hope for the future. Jesus said ‘When these things begin to happen, look up and lift up your heads, because your redemption draws near.’ Luke 21.28. These things have begun to happen so we should look to the return of the Lord Jesus as the hope for the world. While people without faith are described by Jesus as experiencing heart failure for fear at the things which are coming on the earth (Luke 21.26), the believer has a totally different expectation: ‘We should live soberly, righteously and godly in the present age, looking for the blessed hope and glorious appearing of our great God and Saviour Jesus Christ.’ Titus 2.12-14.

As the lights go out all over the world, the light of faith and hope in Jesus will never go out in the heart of those who really believe in Him. In order to escape the coming collapse of oil based industrial society, Mr Savinar, in the article already quoted suggests that people should ‘relocate to an area as least vulnerable to these issues as possible’. But for many people that will not be a viable option and it will not save you anyway. As in the days of Noah there will be no escape.

But the Lord has a plan to relocate His people: ‘For the Lord Himself will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of an archangel, and with the trumpet of God. And the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive and remain shall be caught up to meet the Lord in the air. And thus we shall always be with the Lord.’ 1 Thessalonians 4.16-17.

This event, known as the Rapture of the Church, will take place unexpectedly and unannounced like a thief coming in the night. At that moment those who are saved will be taken to a place of safety before the judgements fall on the earth in the great tribulation period.

In the light of all this there is only one hope for the world. The return of Jesus. The human race has blown our chances of saving the world by ourselves already.

The world system today will not stand because it is on the wrong foundations. But when everything else is shaken, God’s kingdom cannot be shaken. In order to enter God’s kingdom Jesus says ‘You must be born again’ (John 3.7) not physically but spiritually by turning from sin and unbelief to faith in God who raised Jesus from the dead when He had paid the price for our sins and will raise with Him all who put their trust in Him.
If you have not yet made that step I urge you to do so without delay. Here is a prayer which you can say to accept salvation through Jesus the Messiah.

‘Dear Heavenly Father, I admit that I am a sinner and need your forgiveness. I believe that Jesus the Messiah died in my place, shedding His blood to pay for my sins, and that He rose again from the dead to give me eternal life. I am willing right now to turn from my sin and accept Jesus the Messiah as my personal Saviour and Lord. I commit my life to you and ask you to send the Holy Spirit into my life, to fill me and to take control and to help me become the kind of person you want me to be. Thank you Father for loving me. In Jesus’ name, Amen.

Much of the information in this article is taken from a new book written by Tony Pearce, ‘The House on the Sand’.

Alternative Ideas for American Economic Development

The global financial crisis has clearly illustrated that there is a serious vacuum of ideas on what to do next as a civilization. Majority of the public senses (on various levels) that key leaderships of many Western states do not offer much more beyond printing more money, socially brutal austerity, etc. Playing for time and looting are not solid ideas and everybody knows it. This inevitably opens up society to ideas from below which will eventually result in part of the elite siding with these ideas to co-opt them and ride them to power.

In United States, we saw the libertarian critique meme and the reactionary “going back to FDR policies” meme rapidly become dominant online over the last 2 years. Collapsist and neofeudalism memes are also about to become dominant. Collapsism in particular forces future oriented thought. The non-Internet world is quickly following behind since it took researchers a year or so to educate themselves about the fraud that caused the crisis, to put their books out, and then another few months for people to read the books. Various socially visible pundits can now defer to books as authoritative sources in speaking up. The market for new type of demagogy (talk radio being the old type) is nowhere near to being saturated.

This awakening resembles a sort of a popular front in the making since people from diverse ideological backgrounds are creating a consensus of what they are against (federal reserve corruption, military eating most resources, financial oligarchy and its personal lawyer/butler [US congress]). A marriage of convenience of this sort is usually created when all other options are exhausted and it will split into petty infighting once the current regime is changed.

All the accelerating muck racking and massive corruption exposures going on currently will begin to create a dissident critical mass in the near future. This is due to the gently exponential curve that is word of mouth communication and most importantly due to some elites sensing that popular sentiment now allows certain things to be safely discussed on a national level. Like in a jury herd dynamic, a minority of consistent and tireless individuals can swing the entire group whether at elite level, the level of a bar or church, or national level. The vacuum of workable ideas in leadership allows such informational waves to spread and take hold rapidly. It may have taken Christianity 300 years to become a dominant meme but with present communication technology, informational “viruses” can do the trick in just years.

In interesting times like these, small but very narrative consistent groups have disproportionate amount of influence. Notice how quickly Ron Paul’s faction went from being an ignored laughing stock to being a respected dissident movement (the mere fact that some oligarchs partially co-opted it with funding demonstrates level of genuine popular support). The great budding coalition of groups who usually don’t want anything to do with one another (but who realize they got a common enemy) is gaining strength by the week. The awakening process does not even need to take hold of most people. A society historically needs maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of people to substantially switch their world view in order for real transition to start happening. 1/3 of the population can always be counted on to defend status quo to the last while 1/3 can be counted on to be an apathetic mushy middle that joins whoever seems to be winning or is more popular.

How will ideas be judged, what determines which will win out?

Market of ideas is limited by two things.

1) Practicality of an idea. This means the degree to which an idea is compatible with unfolding social and physical dynamics of human civilization (can’t have genuine feudalism, monarchies, or theocracies in 21st century with hundreds of millions of educated people). In a way, the strongest idea is one which is predictive of where we’re pretty much headed anyway. This criteria can be said to be desirability of the good (functionality determining desirability).

2) How quickly it can be internalized by the public at large. If one needs to read too many books to understand and accept an idea, then it really is not that great. An idea having been popular previously at some point in history greatly helps with this. This criteria can be said to be the knowledgeableness of the buyer to determine which good is desirable.

So what’s on the market presently?

I am going to focus on United States since in many ways the problems of United States show to the world the problems that they themselves will face very soon. The ideas that the American people adapt to resurrect themselves will eventually (if not immediately) be influential on a planetary scale after a couple of decades. The following are listed in no particular order of importance.

a) Reactionary “going back to FDR style” Keynesian monetarism, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

b) Reactionary “going back to the John Quincy Adams style” American credit system, sound money, and rapid infrastructural development

c) Reactionary “going back to industrial robber baron style” brief and unstable period of something resembling what the libertarian faction wants. Some haphazard and rapid ego driven infrastructural development.

d) American version of Leninist New Economic Policy and very rapid infrastructural development

e) Emulation of Chinese style oligarchic dictatorship and rapid infrastructural development

f) Post-monetarist energy accounting Technocracy and very rapid infrastructural development

SPOILER ALERT:

It’ll end up being f) eventually but not before one or more of the others are torturously tried, muddled through, combined, and recombined. In effect, a)-e) are a connecting bridge of experimentation that will make f) possible in due time. Some areas of the country and the world may experience de facto libertarian c) environment due to only the local oligarchs having developmental resources (see Abramovich in his post as governor of Chukotka). Such frightful old school oligarchy should not really spread too quickly before rapid backlash into other choices. There is also the matter of deflation stifling its development. Therefore the libertarian faction is primarily useful as a vibrant “rural power” part of the popular front. They will quickly fade as America’s socioeconomic failure discredits capitalism (fairly or unfairly) in the eyes of humanity at large.

Emulation of Chinese police state e) and industrial worker exploitation may be preferred by one wing of American oligarchy (while the other wing seems to want perpetual banana republic style oligarchic military dictatorship with sprinkles of c)). This is due to China already combining various structural characteristics of a)-d) in one package. American version of Putinism is the other “softer” alternative to this. Neither are sustainable long term since they do not address the problem of exponential progress of technology consistently increasing planetary unemployment. There will also be the issue of China entering it’s “America in the 1930s” period of industrial depression and crisis of overproduction (which in turn stands to discredit that country briefly in the eyes of the world).

We can begin to see how process of elimination reduces the extent to which the current ideas on the market will be utilized. For the older generation, some elements of a) can be used to provide them peace of mind, continuity towards the end of life, and as marketing to politically sell rapid increase in state intervention. Then, for the younger generations, the mythical elements of b) combined with the edginess of d) may follow to demonstrate that rapid infrastructural progress really is occurring and to provide the future American regime with legitimacy (it’ll definitely be needing it). Transition period of the next 30 years will definitely be turbulent and interesting for all involved. We must consistently remain vigilant throughout the process to make sure the rich do not derail the experimentation into something truly frightening (which would make us wish for the old USA back).

Occupy Wall Street and Beyond

Occupy Wall Street is a protest movement against inequality, greed, corporate-government nexus and police brutality which broke out on September 17, 2011 in Zuccotti Park of Wall Street in New York. The international protest was named “Occupy Movement” and in other parts of the United States, the movement was called “Occupy Together”. There is no formal, explicitly stated leadership and the protestors are mostly young and unemployed. However, there are moderators, and as it happens in any society, movement or organization, leaders have emerged. The noise, complete lack of civility and violence in the movement has often been pointed out by the critics. Police brutality is rampant and many protestors were arrested.

The eruption of the protests

The protests broke out when Adbusters foundation in Canada urged people to peacefully occupy the Wall Street to protest against the growing disparity of wealth and the government’s rescue package to deal with the failures of the financial crisis through their email list. Slowly, many other groups joined in to organize the movement which was largely inspired by the strategy of the Arab Spring protests. The protests began when thousands of protestors marched through the streets. In a month, the demonstrators were tens of thousands in number and held protests in close to thousand cities across the world. In two months, the movement had spread to 2,609 towns and cities across the world. The protests slowly led to arrests and the police mistreatment of protesting women and journalists were controversial.

Goals of the movement

The stated goal of the movement was protesting the Wall Street for its collusion with the state. The explicit goal clashes with the views of many critics, but there is a clustering of many mutually incompatible political positions among the protestors. Though the leaders of the movement were very much against the media reading too much into their positions other than the protesting Wall Street, the protestors in other towns and cities were free to define their positions. Social and economic justice, better employment opportunities and working conditions, income equality, banking reforms and the elimination of corporate power are the demands which echo the most.

The role of the Wall Street

The protestors tend to believe that the Wall Street and corporate greed are largely responsible for the financial crisis and resulting stagnation. The protestors oppose bailouts, and suggest banking reforms and a better regulatory framework. Many economists argue that the stock market serves a healthy economic purpose, and that the Wall Street couldn’t have brought about the crisis by its own. They argue that the blame should be shared with the Federal Reserve System which issues cheap, artificial credit and distorts the market signals to investors and individual businessmen. The Federal Reserve System has been quite active for long to rescue financial firms which run into trouble, and to compel the taxpayers to bailout these companies.

The Political Slogan: “We are the 99%”

The protestors held a themed sign which read “We are the 99%”. It was in reference to the growing inequality between the majority of the population in the United States and an elite minority, which according to the protestors, arrogated to themselves, much of the wealth and political clout. The slogan emphasizes the notion that 1% of the population owns a significant part of the wealth in the United States. It is also argued that the income disparity has gone up slightly after the economic recession. Though the concentration of wealth is often overstated, there is much truth in it, and the sentiments echoed by the slogan are not far off the mark. It is true that an elite minority owns a significant part of the wealth in the United States and very few go to the extent of denying this. However, there is much criticism against the proposed solution of redistribution of wealth.

Is inequality growing?

The Gini index (or coefficient), a measure of income inequality tells us that income inequality has been growing dramatically in the recent past. However, other studies of the income distribution in the United States do not support the notion that income inequality has been rising in the present century. The Census Bureau measures suggest that the income inequality had gone up from 1960 till 1990, but have remained roughly constant in the last two decades.

Inequality is much less pronounced when we consider income of households instead of that of individuals. The size of the households has shrunk over time and, the number of households has been growing at a much faster pace than that of the population growth. Income inequality statistics which fails to take this into account can be highly misleading.

According to US Treasury department statistics, between 1975 and 1997 the wealthiest 20% in the United Stated raised their status from receiving 43.2% of the national income to receiving 49.4% of it. The poorest 20%, at the same time from receiving 4.4% went down the rung to receiving 3.6%. But economist Steve Horwitz points out that the people who formed the bottom 20% in 1975 are for the large part different from the ones who formed it in 1997. The poorest had almost always raised their financial status and moved out the bottom quintile in these two decided. Moreover, 4.4% of the total national income in 1975 is a much smaller figure when compared to 3.6% of the total national income in 1997. The absolute position of low income individuals have been consistently improving for long.

Causes of inequality

The poor often remains poor because success in the market is partly luck and often influenced by closeness with the state. However, the consensus in twin adoption studies suggest that intelligence and conscientiousness are the strongest predictors of financial success.

The arguments against egalitarianism

Many economists think that it is the wealth of a small minority which makes the superior living standards of the common man possible. They argue that much of the wealth of the extremely rich is in the form of means of production and not in the form of consumer goods which are available in the market. It is the concentrated wealth which allows big corporations to invest in physical infrastructure. Such huge capital investment results in much higher productivity, higher wages and lower prices which wouldn’t have been possible at all in a society of self-sufficient farms and small traders. The growth of individual fortunes of businessmen pales in comparison to the growth of big business enterprises.

Big business enterprises are almost without exception, corporations, and not owned by a single individual. The big business enterprises would have long lost its status if it hadn’t served the needs of the masses, as they always serve the common man though not always in a manner visible to the untrained mind.

However, these economists readily concede that in the present world, to a large extent, wealth acquired and sustained through special state privileges and by maintaining proximity with the government. The elimination of government privileges, protection and subsidies will make the path of riches open to everyone, and not just to an aristocracy of pull. The regulatory burden and progressive taxation, especially in developing countries like India makes it increasingly difficult for an upstart to accumulate capital and reach the state of big business.

Reaction to the protests

Unlike the reaction to the Tea party movement, the public response to the Occupy Wall Street protests is largely favourable. The response is positive from left-liberal media which claimed that the protests are a left-wing tea party. While unions predominantly agree to the goals of the protests, some disagree with the anarchistic structure of the protests which is strikingly different from the unions which are well organized and authoritarian in structure. Intellectuals and people in the entertainment industry are largely supportive, and some of them make public speeches at the protests. Many leaders of huge corporations think that the protests are much understandable, though they often have disagreements on the nature and goal of protests. Most think that things are not as good as they ought to be and that to say otherwise would be a complete denial of reality.

The libertarian ambivalence

Some libertarians and political commentators who are well to the right on the political spectrum looked down upon the protests as a pincer movement, a diabolical plot of the left to overthrow the very foundations of a capitalistic society. However, some of them believe that the protests are well justified, and that it is high time that crony capitalists are stripped of their special privileges and positions. Their disagreement is not so much on the stated goal as it is on the nature of the protests and proposed solutions. Many of them think that the protests should be peaceful, and should make a coherent and well thought out case against central banking in particular and government power in general. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve and Ron Paul, the most libertarian politician from both the houses sympathized with the protests on some important levels, though for different reasons. While Ron Paul thought that the Federal Reserve (Fed) should be held up for criticism, Ben Bernanke dismissed the public outrage against the Fed as a misconception. However, both agreed that the economic situation of the country is dismal and people have reasons to find the policy response to it unsatisfactory.

The reaction of political leaders

Many political leaders across the world have expressed solidarity with the movement while some others have disagreed or have had mixed feelings about the same. The American President Barack Obama said that the protests express the deep frustrations of the American public with the aftermath of the financial crisis and the tendency of the powers-that-be to freeze the status quo. The Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh said that there are reasons why people are protesting and that the system should be willing to honestly address these problems. The Former United Kingdom Prime Minister Tony Blair was among the few who strongly disagreed with the protests.

Conclusion

The performance of the world economies would have been better if it hadn’t been for panics and recessions which occasionally strike them. The public outrage against corporatism, inequality and the failures of central bank monetary management is understandable, but should be directed towards the real culprits.

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